Development of a comprehensive work program to support a national transmission system operator in preparing for reliable and economic operation of a power system with high shares of Renewable Energy Sources (RES). The assignment focused on strengthening forecasting methodologies, tools, and processes to manage intermittency and limited predictability associated with large-scale RES integration.

Key Responsibilities & Achievements:

• Benchmarked the existing RES forecasting system against Elia Group practices to identify improvement opportunities and maturity gaps.

• Assessed the current forecasting landscape and defined required upgrades to prepare for a highly RES-penetrated grid.

• Proposed a structured implementation roadmap, prioritizing actions based on urgency and interdependencies between upgrade initiatives.

• Analyzed historical forecasting performance by comparing multi-model forecast outputs with actual in-feed data across multiple locations.

• Evaluated existing forecasting tools (including short-, long-term, and ramping capabilities) and conducted iterative performance assessments.

• Recommended suitable meteorological service providers for the regional context and defined data exchange requirements between the TSO and external prediction providers.

• Developed a proof-of-concept meta-forecasting tool to enhance forecast accuracy through model combination techniques.

• Assessed the impact of extreme weather events (e.g., sandstorms) on RES generation and identified external data sources for improved event prediction.

Outcome:
Delivered a clear upgrade roadmap, performance-driven forecasting improvements, and enhanced institutional capabilities, positioning the system operator to manage high RES penetration with improved reliability, predictability, and operational efficiency.